Jim's View from the CMM (Carleton Mississippi Mills) Riding
Ontario's Deficit - Posting on September 9, 2011
The polls are saying that the economy and health care are the two main concerns among Ontario voters. But, because of the Province’s current financial position and Globalization, the ability of a new government do anything about either of these concerns is severely limited.
Our Province’s debt now totals $240 billion and the deficit for this year is expected to be about $16 billion. Both the Liberals and the Conservatives have deficit elimination plans. That is good. But both say it will take six more years to balance the books. That means five more years of increasing the debt load. It could easily be more than $300 billion by next election.
But what is even more disturbing are the assumptions underlying these deficit reduction plans. Both assume high rates of growth in the economy and continuing expansion of our labor force. This just isn’t going to happen. So both plans are doomed to fail. And if they fail, the provincial debt by next election will be even higher that $300 billion – maybe $400 billion.
Ever since the Second World our labor force expanded rapidly. Immigration combined with the onslaught of the baby boomers and the movement of many women from the kitchen to a job has fueled our past expansion. But those days are over. Forecasts for growth on the Ontario labor force growth in the next six years are less than 1%.
In the past, our markets in the US and Europe were growing. Now these are stagnating. And our Prime Minister is busy signing free trade deals with all sorts of countries who can produce things cheaper than we can. This may be good for the economy in some parts of Canada – but not for Ontario.
But why have we kept borrowing money and building up our debt? Yes, we borrowed to help revive the economy in the recent recession, but the big gorilla in the closet is health care – it has gradually taken a larger and larger share of the Provincial Budget and this share will soon be more than 45%.
Hard choices must be made and, if not, then Ontario could easily find itself in the same situation as Greece, Spain, or Italy – a financial nightmare.
~Jim
March 25th
"This article by Dan Gardner shows how out-of-touch our national leaders have become. There are truly important issues out there - like health care costs, climate change, and a World that is racing to an uncertain and precariuos future - meanwhile our leaders debate Census forms, prisons, and who put the word 'not' in a memo. http://www.ottawacitizen.com/technology/Gardner+trivial+election+serious+times/4499109/story.html
Who are these guys anyway? - Harper is the most mediocre and devious Prime Minister we have ever had, Layton thinks Parliament is Sherwood Forest and he is Robin Hood, Ignatieff is the champion of democracy even though he was never elected leader of his own Party. The only one that makes much sense is Duceppe, the guy that can never be Prime Minister of Canada."
Jim
March 24th
Here's something on Contempt of Parliament.
"If the Liberals have their way, the Harper goverrnment will fall because it is 'in contempt of Parliament'. Wikipedia tells us what that means - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contempt_of_Parliament
It sounds like pretty serious stuff - even a criminal offence in some jurisdictions. Maybe that's why they need bigger prisons."
"The budget unveiled by Finance Minister Jim Flaherty sets out a target of $4 billion in government cuts by 2014. This means cuts in the PS in Ottawa - but with the election call, the budget will die. But another budget will appear later and we can expect this cut to appear again. Read more: http://www.ottawacitizen.com/business/Diversify+Ottawa+economy/"
Jim
March 22nd
The big food companies are busy trying to figure out if there is a role for them in to-day's market -
How long will it take for them to accept the inevitable?
Meanwhile Randall Denley feels that, when it comes to electricity "Ontario has created a textbook example of the weaknesses of centralized bureaucratic systems. The whole thing needs to be rethought from the ground up, preferably by people who care about your power bills."
Too bad he didn't include the environment - but at least he got it half right!
Jim
March 21st, the first snowy day of Spring!
Jim
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